The New England Patriots shocked a lot of people by going from 4-13 in 2024 to 14-3 last year. Going from worst to first isn’t unheard of in the NFL, but the act broke Buffalo’s hold atop the division ever since Tom Brady left the Northeast.
Both teams made the playoffs, with the Patriots doing what Buffalo hasn’t been able to do—make it to the Super Bowl. The New York Jets played their usual doormat role due to the franchise’s own ineptitude. Miami saw its three-year run of relevancy end as the wheels fell off with Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa.
The view of the division on paper should remain relatively the same in 2026—Buffalo and New England fighting for the crown with the Jets and Dolphins scrambling to look credible. What will the division look like come January 2027? Here are predictions for the AFC East this year.
1. BUFFALO BILLS (DIVISION WINNER)
The Pegulas parted ways with long-time head coach Sean McDermott, replacing him with offensive coordinator Sean Brady. That will keep continuity on offense, and adding DJ Moore should keep it humming.
The issue is that Buffalo’s problems weren’t on offense. Had a defensive mind taken over, it could have altered fortunes. Bradley Chubb is just the latest in a long line of big-name pass rushers (Von Miller, Joey Bosa).
The defense was a mixed bag, finishing 12th in points allowed and first against the pass (156 yards per game). The main issue was a 28th finish against the rush. In the playoffs, teams that go the furthest usually run the ball and can stop it.
Losing fullback Reggie Gilliam to New England doesn’t seem like a big deal, but he helped pave the way for James Cook’s rushing crown last year. Defensive end AJ Epenesa and defensive back Taron Johnson are also gone.
The Bills should rebound and again be one of the best teams in the NFL. New England is staring at a much more difficult schedule, so another division crown is possible. The ultimate result of falling short is also very possible in 2026.
2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The 2026 Patriots have “better team with a worse record” written all over the walls. The team upgraded on offense with receivers Romeo Doubs and AJ Brown. Offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker and fullback Reggie Gilliam are also new faces.
Those four signings should make a top-five offense even better, although an extremely weak schedule likely contributed to those rankings.
The defense, which finished fourth in points allowed and eighth in total defense, added Dre’Mont Jones and safety Kevin Byard. K’Lavon Chaisson and defensive lineman Khyris Tonga signed elsewhere. The schedule will be much harder, but Drake Maye does have a rather impressive year under his belt.
For that reason, the surprise division crown and run to the Super Bowl is probably a function of last year. The Patriots should make the playoffs and could win the division again, but a wildcard finish and 11-win season are likely the ceiling.
#3. NEW YORK JETS
The Jets went back in their history by acquiring former quarterback Geno Smith. He’ll be an upgrade over last year’s starters but isn’t the long-term answer. He’ll have some 300-yard games but also many three-interception meltdowns. That’s not the best while looking up at Buffalo and New England.
Aaron Glenn was supposed to be the answer on defense, but his squad finished 31st in points allowed, ceding nearly 30 points a game. The rush defense was also atrocious, allowing 139.5 yards per game. While a turnaround wasn’t likely in year one, some noticeable improvements should have emerged. Losing Jeremiah Johnson won’t help.
The big additions on defense were linebacker Demario Davis and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The team could be better on paper, but Glenn’s defenses in Detroit also gave up a lot of yardage and points.
Drafting tight end Kenyon Sadiq should help Smith. Huge leaps, however, aren’t likely in 2026. The Jets should improve on both sides, but even 2026 opponents on the Jets’ level, like the Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals, should be better in some regards.
#4. MIAMI DOLPHINS
It was only two years ago that the Dolphins were a team on the rise and a potential threat to the Bills’ dominance. Mike McDaniel’s hold atop the team had a shelf life, and the cracks emerged with every passing week. Tyreek Hill was productive but also the same off-field headache he was in Kansas City. Tagovailoa had concussion issues but was able to play.
The defense had some pop, but issues with former coordinator Brian Flores exposed the franchise in a bad light. McDaniel is gone. Former Packers defensive play-caller Jeff Halfley replaces McDaniel, and he’ll try to make the Dolphins look like they at least belong in 2026.
He was brought in to improve the 22nd-ranked defense and 26th-ranked rush defense. Gone are Bradley Chubb, Rasul Douglas, and Fitzpatrick. Malik Willis also came over from Green Bay, but outside of De’Von Achane, he’s facing an uphill battle.
Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver, and what’s left isn’t exactly enticing. The line could also be an issue with shallow depth. Losing center Liam Eichenberg won’t help. Miami is clearly in rebuild mode and could vie for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Matthew Serocki is a freelance journalist based outside of Boston, Massachusetts. He’s been an avid NFL and MLB fan for over 35 years, and his favorite teams are the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Boston Red Sox, Boston Celtics, and Washington Commanders.
Matt also writes about professional wrestling for Sportskeeda.
