Any of the four teams could be in the mix in one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions, but Jacksonville and Houston are the favorites to battle it out
By Matthew Serocki | July 25, 2026
The AFC South used to mirror how the NFC South currently looks, with several mediocre teams grouped together. The Jacksonville Jaguars won the division under first-year head coach Liam Coen, while the Houston Texans also qualified for the playoffs. Just one game separated the two teams in the standings, so every small injury or moment could change things up in 2026.
Indianapolis was on a roll for part of the season, but Daniel Jones got hurt. What version of Jones will appear in 2026? Tennessee jettisoned its head coach in favor of former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.
He brings in former Giants head coach Brian Daboll to run the offense. Both should give the Titans a new look on both sides of the ball. Which team will take advantage of the changes they made in the off-season? Here are predictions for the AFC South in 2026.
1. HOUSTON TEXANS (DIVISION WINNER)
Whatever happens with the 2026 Texans, the defense will likely lead the charge. The unit finished second in points per game allowed (17.4) and first in total defense (277.2). DeMeco Ryans’ squad was sixth vs. the pass (183.5) and fourth vs. the rush (93.7).
The Texans ranked third in turnover differential (+13) and seventh in sacks. Reed Blankenship joined the secondary. Teams won’t get much against a stout defensive unit, giving Houston a leg up in the division.
How far the team goes rests on the shoulders of quarterback CJ Stroud. He brought the team to the playoffs but was embarrassed against the Patriots. Christian Kirk may have been a journeyman lately, but losing him will hurt the depth.
That only intensifies if Nico Collins gets injured again. Tank Dell is also dealing with an injury, so adding David Montgomery means Ryans will rely on his rushing attack. That’s why Wyatt Teller was signed away from Cleveland.
2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars crept up on the NFL last year to win the division at 13-4. Much of the success came thanks to the league’s top-ranked rush defense (85.6 YPG) and a unit that finished 11th overall. While much of the defensive line remains intact, losing linebacker Devin Lloyd to Carolina will hurt.
Cornerback Greg Newsome signed with the Giants, so Jacksonville may have trouble matching its eighth-place finish in points allowed (19.8). Playing a first-place schedule will also truly test if 2025 was the start of the rise or an instance of punching above their weight class.
Despite winning the division, Coen couldn’t get past the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard Round. Trevor Lawrence has shown he’s the franchise quarterback, but his spot among other young gunslingers is still up for debate.
Travis Etienne wasn’t going to get the headlines of a Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley, but he was a solid, dual-threat back. He signed with New Orleans. In his place comes former Commander Chris Rodriguez, who’ll join Bhayshul Tuten in the backfield.
3. TENNESSEE TITANS
The 2026 Tennessee Titans should look vastly different from the 2025 version. Saleh takes over as head coach, and his job will be to fix a unit that finished 28th in points per game allowed (28.1), 21st in total defense, and 23rd against the pass.
The unit did finish 15th against the run, so adding defensive lineman Jeremiah Johnson and John Franklin-Myers should help improve on that ranking. The offense was one of the NFL’s worst, finishing 30th in passing yards, rushing yards, and points scored (16.7).
Brian Daboll was brought in to fix those numbers. Former Giants receiver Wan’Dale Robinson comes with him from New York. He’ll join rookie Carnell Tate in the receiving corps. The rushing attack may have a new scheme, but has the same two guys, Tajee Spears and Tony Pollard, leading the backfield. Daboll may get better use out of both.
Tight end Chig Okonkwo signed with Washington, so second-year quarterback Cam Ward will likely rely on his one-two punch at receiver. The Titans should be one of the most improved teams this year, but aren’t likely to push for the playoffs.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts led the division for almost half of the 2025 season, but the wheels fell off at the worst time. Daniel Jones got hurt, forcing Philip Rivers to come out of retirement. He played better than most expected, but still couldn’t guide the team to the postseason. Getting to the postseason will be a tall task again this year.
Jones is back, but reliable receiver Michael Pittman was traded to Pittsburgh. That puts Alec Pierce and Josh Downs as the top two receivers. Having Jonathan Taylor and tight end Tyler Warren will help stem the loss. Any success Indianapolis may have will likely come down to the defense.
The unit was inconsistent, ranking 31st against the pass (349.8) and seventh against the rush (101.9). That’s likely how things could play out again in 2026, as focus was mostly paid to the defensive line. Arden Key, Derrick Nnadi, and Jerry Tillery were all signed.
One big loss will be linebacker Zaire Franklin, who was traded to Green Bay. Sauce Gardner should be healthy, but will he be the same player he was with the Jets? If the Colts don’t have a good season, head coach Shane Steichen may be looking for work in early 2027.
Matt Serocki is a freelance journalist based outside of Boston, Massachusetts. He’s been an avid NFL and MLB fan for over 35 years, and his favorite teams are the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Boston Red Sox, Boston Celtics, and Washington Commanders.
Matt also writes about professional wrestling for Sportskeeda.
