By Matthew Serocki | July 20, 2026
Despite dominating postseason play over the last six years, the Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid Era. It shocked fans all over the world as the Denver Broncos won the division and the top seed in the AFC.
The Los Angeles Chargers grabbed the seventh seed, but lost to the New England Patriots in the first round. Mahomes also injured several ligaments in his knee in Week 15, making it unclear if he’ll be ready to go by Week 1. The former Super Bowl Champion will probably rush through rehab to get back on the field, but it could backfire.
The Broncos sport one of the league’s most formidable defenses, and got better in the off-season. The Chargers should also be better than last year. The Las Vegas Raiders are starting over again.
This time, it’s former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak taking over with rookie signal-caller Fernando Mendoza under center. Will anything change in 2026? Here are predictions for how the teams will finish from top to bottom.
1. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (DIVISION WINNER)
Despite a recent history of postseason ineptitude, Jim Harbaugh brought legitimacy to the team. He solidified the running game, but still hadn’t gotten the best out of Justin Herbert. By adding former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, the best may come in 2026.
Along with McDaniel, former Browns tight end David Njoku was signed. He’s a dynamic pass catcher who can stretch the field. McDaniel also liked a diverse rushing attack, so Omarion Hampton should have a solid season, provided he stays healthy.
Speaking of health, offensive linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater should be back from injuries. Better protection and blocking should give the Chargers a top offense. The defense was already strong, finishing ninth in points per game allowed (20), and fifth in total defense (285.2).
Harbaugh’s defense finished fifth against the pass (179.9) and eighth against the rush (105.4). The team has victories over both Kansas City and Denver over the last two years, so this could be their year to win the division.
2. DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos will be among the top teams in the AFC. The defense remains stout after finishing third overall in points per game allowed (18.3) and second in total defense (278.2). Denver excelled against both the pass (7th) and the rush (2nd). The unit will carry the load again, even after losing linebacker Dre Greenlaw to the 49ers and safety Justin Simmons.
Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle comes over in a trade with Miami, so he’ll add another wrinkle to the short-to-intermediate passing game. Bo Nix’s injury in the Divisional Round will likely make it ugly at the beginning of the season.
With one of the league’s best defenses and a new weapon on offense, the Broncos will be pushing for a second division title in a row. Playing a first-place schedule, however, could make that harder than they want.
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time with Mahomes and also lost the generational quarterback to a knee injury in Week 15. His recovery will slightly hamper aspirations to return to the top of the division. It may be the first year of a regression or an aberration. Only time will tell.
There were some bright spots in 2025. The defense kept games close all year, but the team couldn’t win as many one-possession games as in 2024. Finishing sixth in points per game allowed (19.3) and tenth in total defense (301.5) are foundations to rely on in 2026.
Adding Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III looks great on paper, but the Chiefs’ offensive line has struggled with run blocking. He’ll have some great games and might be an upgrade over Isiah Pacheco, but the receiving corps is essentially the same.
Defensive monster Khyris Tonga was signed away from the Patriots. Cornerback L’Jarius Snead was brought back, while safety Alohi Gilman joins the secondary. The defense lost linebacker Leo Chenal and cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. The division is much better than two or three years ago, so Kansas City’s dominance may be a thing of the past.
4. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Raiders have the unfortunate distinction of playing in one of the best divisions in the league. It’s also a fallout of having poor ownership and a volatile history of turnover. Drafting Fernando Mendoza first overall should bring eyes to the product, but he has an uphill battle right off the bat.
That’s why Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins as a safety blanket. Running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers are the only offensive pieces of note. New head coach Klint Kubiak could make the offense more exciting, but the division is loaded with top-ten defenses. The team may look better, but finish with only four wins. The defense finished 14th overall in total defense, but ranked 25th in points allowed.
In are defensive end Kwity Paye, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, and cornerback Taron Johnson. Gone are defensive end Tyree Wilson, a former first-round pick, and linebackers Elandon Roberts, Jamin Davis, and Devin White. The best the Black Hole can hope for is an exciting product that keeps them in every game.
Matt Serocki is a freelance journalist based outside of Boston, Massachusetts. He’s been an avid NFL and MLB fan for over 35 years, and his favorite teams are the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Boston Red Sox, Boston Celtics, and Washington Commanders.
Matt also writes about professional wrestling for Sportskeeda
