Over the past few seasons, the NFC South has devolved into a division filled with merely above-average teams, and no one has separated themselves from the pack
By Matthew Serocki | July 15, 2026
The NFC South has long been one of the weirdest divisions in the NFL. It feels like none of the teams want to win it, like with the finish of the 2026 season. The division crown was still up for grabs in Week 18, but in the end, Carolina “earned” the honor.
The Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons all finished at 8-9. New Orleans, which finished in the basement, ended with a 6-11 mark. It really drives home the “revamp the post-season” discussion, but the traditionalists who think winning the division is more important than having a winning record would disagree.
All four teams endured significant changes. Atlanta has a new head coach and potential starting quarterback with Kevin Stefanski and Tua Tagovailoa. Mike Evans left Tampa Bay for San Francisco.
Carolina added Jaelen Phillips and Devin Lloyd to the defense. New Orleans added running back Travis Etienne Jr. to the backfield. Which team’s moves will lead to a post-season berth? Here are predictions for the NFC South from top to bottom.
1. ATLANTA FALCONS (DIVISION WINNER)
Regardless of who is under center, the Falcons’ signal caller will have three top weapons to lean on. Stefanski will heavily rely on Bijan Robinson. He got good seasons out of Nick Chubb in Cleveland. Tua had success throwing to Devon Achane out of the backfield, and Robinson is among the top backs in the NFL.
Kyle Pitts finally showed last season what made him a first-round pick. Drake London missed five games but still had 919 yards and seven touchdowns through the air. With more consistent play under center, he could reach 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. The defense set a franchise record with 57 sacks in Jeff Ulbrich’s first season as defensive coordinator.
The teams are all close, but Atlanta has more playmakers and weapons on both sides of the ball. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy and pick up the system, he could return to 2022 form. Finishing on a four-game winning streak gives a speck of optimism, but the schedule is tough with both the NFC and AFC North included.
2. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Carolina won the NFC South last year essentially by default. Bryce Young took a step forward and almost led the Panthers to a Wildcard Round upset of the Los Angeles Rams. Carolina swept Atlanta last year, but couldn’t separate from the pack. Adding Phillips, Lloyd and linebacker Isaiah Simmons to the defense should bolster what was a middle-of-the-pack squad.
Young could take another step forward with Tetairoa McMillan. Playing a first-place schedule will also be a true test of whether last year was the best Carolina could hope for or a small step forward. The defense should be better, but losing Rico Dowdle to Pittsburgh takes a dynamic playmaker out of the backfield.
3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints may have finished last in 2025, but they had spurts where they looked like the best team in the average division. Losing linebacker Demario Davis, who led the team in tackles, to the Jets will hurt. Still, adding Anfernee Jennings and former first-round pick Tyree Wilson to the front eight could help stem the loss.
The rushing attack was atrocious, ranking 28th in the league. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing with only 471 yards. Bringing Travis Etienne Jr. into the fold should help the backfield production on the ground and through the air.
The team may also go as far as second-year quarterback Tyler Shough can take them. He averaged 216.7 yards passing per game with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions in 11 games. The impressive mark was a 67.6% completion rate. That’s a good start for a rookie.
New Orleans must also be more consistent than it was in 2025, having experienced two four-game losing streaks during the year. Kellen Moore did lead the team to wins in four of the final five games, so that momentum could spill into 2026.
4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
What used to be the clear best team in the division is now just part of the pack. Tom Brady revitalized the team by bringing in big-name players. Some of those have since retired or moved to different teams.
That’s left Baker Mayfield still playing with the chip on his shoulder. He can put the team on his back for some weeks, but also make a few bad throws to doom them. He’ll lose future Hall of Famer Mike Evans to the 49ers, but still have Chris Godwin and Emeka Ebuka to rely on.
To return to the upper echelon of the NFL, they’ll have to do better than finishing no better than 20th in yards passing, yards rushing, and points allowed (24.2 ppg allowed). The face of the defense, Lavonte David, retired, as did fellow linebacker Anthony Walker. Tampa Bay also lost linebacker Deion Jones and cornerback Jamel Dean.
Joining the team are defensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunes-Roches. Christian Roseboom and Alexa Anzalone will try to fill in for the linebacking losses. Kenneth Gainwell should help maintain a versatile rushing attack, but the rest of the division caught up to the Buccaneers.
Matt Serocki is a freelance journalist based outside of Boston, Massachusetts. He’s been an avid NFL and MLB fan for over 35 years, and his favorite teams are the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Boston Red Sox, Boston Celtics, and Washington Commanders.
Matt also writes about professional wrestling for Sportskeeda.
