By Matthew Serocki | July 1, 2026
The Buffalo Bills have come close to making the Super Bowl with Josh Allen under center. Buffalo made the AFC Championship Game twice, but was eliminated by the Kansas City Chiefs in both games. With Kansas City out of the playoffs last year, many Buffalo fans and players thought it was finally their year to reach the promised land.
The 2025 season ended like every other, following a Divisional Round loss to the top-seeded Denver Broncos – in disappointment. The New England Patriots, Buffalo’s AFC East rival, made the big game instead, but fell to the Seattle Seahawks.
The Pegulas parted ways with long-time head coach Sean McDermott, replacing him with offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The team also traded for wide receiver DJ Moore in the offseason to help bolster the offense. The multi-layered question is, will adding a player like Moore get the Bills closer to a Super Bowl?
Moore is a top-15 receiver in the league, but he isn’t a Ja’Marr Chase or Puka Nacua type player. He’ll be a solid addition and put up good numbers. One drawback, however, is that he’s had more than 1,200 yards receiving only once (96 receptions, 1,364 yards, 8 touchdowns with the Bears in 2023) since joining the league in 2018.
He’s a solid receiver who can stretch the field and move the chains, but he’s not the gamebreaker Buffalo probably hopes he is. The Bills’ best receiver was Stefon Diggs from 2020 to 2023. He had over 1,400 yards twice and over 100 receptions in each of his four seasons with the Bills.
Diggs was a volume-based star, but was great at finding the holes in defenses. That was on display with the Patriots in 2025, as Diggs put up 1,023 yards and four touchdowns on 85 receptions with second-year quarterback Drake Maye. They didn’t match his numbers with Allen, but he helped get New England to the Super Bowl.
The offense wasn’t the issue with Buffalo, as it ranked in the top five in total offense. James Cook had a career year, winning the rushing title. Khalil Shakir and the tight end duo of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid were chain movers, but the result of falling short of the Super Bowl was the same.
Adding DJ Moore will keep the offense rolling, but how much different will it be under Brady? He may take more chances as head coach, but Allen shouldn’t be doing more than he already does. When he takes too many chances, he’s a turnover machine. His four turnovers were key in Buffalo’s loss to Denver in the 2025 postseason.
This isn’t to say that the Bills are doomed. They’ll likely win the division and make the postseason again, but the AFC will be stacked again in 2026. New England has a year of success to dissect and learn from. The AFC West will be formidable. The Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs will be better than in 2025. The Texans will have a top defense again. The Bills had the top-ranked defense against the pass, barely allowing 160 yards per game.
When it came to defending opposing rushers, however, Buffalo ranked 28th after allowing over 136 yards per game. The teams that traditionally make the Super Bowl can both run the ball and stop it.
Moore will have a few flashy games, and the offense is likely to be among the best again in 2026. Buffalo lost fullback Reggie Gilliam to New England, so Cook may have trouble matching his numbers.
If they can’t dominate the rushing game like last year, stop it, or rank better than 20th in terms of sacks, then the result in 2026 is likely to be the same for Buffalo – missing out on the Super Bowl.
