By Joe Morin | June 6, 2026 | @joemorinthef1guy
The Monaco Grand Prix is always one of the most unpredictable races on the Formula One calendar. Overtaking is notoriously difficult, qualifying is often more important than race pace, and one small mistake can instantly end a driver’s weekend. With the 2026 season already producing plenty of surprises, Monaco appears poised to play a significant role in shaping the championship battle.
Qualifying Will Be Everything
More than at any other circuit, Monaco is won on Saturday.
The narrow streets of Monte Carlo make passing incredibly difficult, meaning track position is king. Recent Monaco races have frequently been won from pole position, and with the 2026 cars still presenting unique challenges under the new regulations, securing a clean lap in qualifying could be the difference between victory and frustration.
Expect qualifying to be decided by mere hundredths of a second. A brush with the barrier, a yellow flag, or traffic in the final sector could completely reshuffle the grid.
Charles Leclerc Could Finally Deliver Again at Home
If one driver is entering Monaco with enormous expectations, it’s Charles Leclerc.
Ferrari has shown strong pace on slower circuits this season, and several rivals have identified the Scuderia as a genuine threat in Monaco. Leclerc himself has suggested that Ferrari’s chassis and aerodynamic strengths could suit the unique demands of Monte Carlo.
Being a Monaco native gives Leclerc an intimate understanding of the circuit, and after finally breaking his long-standing home-race curse in recent years, confidence should be high.
Prediction: Leclerc starts on the front row and fights for victory.
Mercedes Remain the Team to Beat
Despite Ferrari’s optimism, it is impossible to ignore the form of Mercedes.
The Silver Arrows have dominated much of the 2026 season, with rookie sensation Kimi Antonelli winning four consecutive races and opening a significant championship lead over teammate George Russell. Mercedes also arrived in Monaco leading the Constructors’ Championship.
The biggest question is whether Mercedes’ advantage on conventional circuits translates to Monaco’s slow-speed layout. If it does, Antonelli could further strengthen his grip on the championship.
Prediction: At least one Mercedes starts in the top three.
Don’t Count Out Lewis Hamilton
Now driving for Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton enters Monaco with seven world championships and extensive experience around the streets of Monte Carlo.
Hamilton has looked increasingly comfortable with Ferrari and sits near the front of the championship standings. Monaco rewards experience, patience, and precision—qualities Hamilton possesses in abundance.
A front-row start would make him a serious contender for victory.
McLaren Could Surprise
While Mercedes and Ferrari appear to be the favourites, McLaren should not be ignored.
The team arrives at Monaco, celebrating its 1,000th Formula One race and remains the most successful constructor in Monaco history.
Drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have shown flashes of speed throughout the season. If either can nail a qualifying lap, a podium is certainly achievable.
Safety Cars Will Play a Major Role
Monaco’s tight confines mean incidents are almost inevitable.
The circuit has one of the highest probabilities of safety-car interventions on the calendar. A well-timed safety car can completely transform a race strategy, while a poorly timed one can ruin a driver’s afternoon.
Expect strategy teams to be working overtime throughout the race.
Predicted Top Five
1. Charles Leclerc
2. Kimi Antonelli
3. Lewis Hamilton
4. George Russell
5. Lando Norris
Final Thoughts
Monaco rarely follows the script. A yellow flag in qualifying, a safety car at the wrong moment, or a brush with the barriers can completely change the outcome. However, based on current form, Ferrari appears poised to challenge Mercedes more strongly than at any point this season, and that makes hometown hero Charles Leclerc the driver most likely to stand on the top step of the podium on Sunday.
If Leclerc can secure pole position on Saturday, Monaco may once again belong to the Monegasque star.
Joe Morin is a regular contributor to The Sidearmer, specialising in Formula One coverage. He has been following Formula One and other forms of racing for over 30 years. He has even competed in the now-defunct Canadian Karting Championship, finishing second overall in 2008. This gives him a driver’s perspective, complemented by an analyst approach. Morin also has experience in podcasting, having worked behind the microphone for over ten years and as a video and audio editor for The Gorilla Position and Turnbuckle Studios.
